Ever hear of the Bradley Effect? It's a phenomenon named after Tom Bradley, a black L.A. mayor who ran for governor in 1982. Although polls showed him far ahead of his white competition, he ended up losing. The same thing happened in 1989, when the victory of black governor Douglas Wilder was much, much closer than polls projected it would be, and in 1990, when Harvey Gantt, who was ahead in the polls, lost by four points to Sen. Jesse Helms. The theory is that white people don't want to admit that they aren't supporting the black candidate in polls, although they have no such reservations when it actually comes to voting.
Is this what happened with Barack Obama last night? Across the board, the polls showed Obama had a comfortable lead over Hillary Clinton. After the votes were tallied, this turned out not to be the case. Experts have been warning people about this phenomenon as far back as May, but, nevetheless, people who make a living out of political polls are stumped.
Gary Langer, Director of Polling at ABC News, says that it is unprecedented for so many polls to be wrong, but is hesitant to blame the Bradley Effect outright.
But we need to know it through careful, empirically based analysis. There will be a lot of claims about what happened - about respondents who reputedly lied, about alleged difficulties polling in biracial contests. That may be so. It also may be a smokescreen - a convenient foil for pollsters who'd rather fault their respondents than own up to other possibilities - such as their own failings in sampling and likely voter modeling.
There have been previous races that misstated support for black candidates in biracial races. But most of those were long ago, and there have been plenty of polls in biracial races that were accurate.
So what do you think? Did Hillary's "soft moment" convert a few voters? Is the Bradley in full effect here? Or is this just proof that we need to stop placing so much importance on polls?
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We need to stop putting so much faith in the polls. I think they hurt us, the voters and the candidates more than help. Possibly, because everyone thought Obama would win N.H., maybe some people didn't vote becaus they thought he had in the bag with or without their votes.
When it's all said and done, forget about the polls, research the candidate and get up and VOTE. OBAMA FOR CHANGE!
"Possibly, because everyone thought Obama would win N.H., maybe some people didn’t vote becaus they thought he had in the bag with or without their votes."
I don't think that's true-there was record turnout-places in NH were having to call in for extra ballots. I think it was because the NH primary is for registered Dems only and registered Dems are still with Hillary. Obama needed independents and they went with McCain (NH is conservative). If the primary allows independents in, he has a chance, if it doesn't, it's all hers. I also think there will be a Bradley effect down the road.
I like Obama and have donated to his campaign, but I was glad to see her win-I have a ton of respect for her and she's really tough. At least they will both have to work for it.
I really think that little stunt Hilary pull played a part in here winning.It was more of a 'awww i feel sorry for her..everyone is utting her down' lets give her one kind of thing…Barack is the truth and alot of people are trying to stand in his way because he is black, they'll put Hilary in even if they don't want to; just as long it isn't Obama. Its the staus quo of the white house.
BARACK THE VOTE!!!!!
Charles is right.
Obama will not win - NOT because he is black, but because he is not QUALIFIED.
Hillary is.
This is hilarious. What makes Hillary qualified? she still hasn't implemented that grand universal health care system the clinton's proposed in 1993. If she wins this election it will mean that the presidency has been held by two(2) families since 1988 and we'll be looking at jed bush next go round.
If anything, Hillary's "soft moment" lost her some votes.
White people are secretive about political stuff. I'll tell everyone and anyone who I'm voting for. I'm not going to say I choose Obama because that's what's expected of me.
@ mamma rice, well if you're basing being "qualified" with having experience, I think it's pretty fair to say that hillar and obama equally have the same amount of experience really and that the most "qualified" is john mccain.
"she still hasn’t implemented that grand universal health care system"
If that's the case no one running is qualified. They all have bills/issues that they haven't been able to pass or solve at some point in their professional lives.
The two families issue is a non-starter. If someone is a good candidate - it shouldn't matter what their last name is. Don't worry - Jeb won't be president. His brother pretty much put the nail in that coffin (Thank God).
What happened to Barack in NH is just a tatse of what is to come. The polls everyone in the media kept touting for weeks, ended up being meaningless. What they did show, was that white people will say one thing to a pollster, but when it comes time to vote, all bets are off.
Obama is like an american idol contestant, and everyone wants to get caught up in the excitement, but that's not a lasting effect. The majority of white people who actually vote in this country will never elect him to the presidency.
Hillary is qualified because she was married to Bill. There goes the 35 years of experience. Hillary will not be able to bring the Democrats from all sides together. She's a polarizing figure not just nationally but within her own party. She'll only hand the election to whomever runs on the Republican ticket. This race isn't over by a longshot. New Hampshire made things interesting and I look forward to seeing what these candidates have in reserve.
back to the point of the post, the whole thing reminded me of that chris rock movie where he was running for president and was ahead. and when this was announced on the news, all you saw were throngs of hysterical white people running out of their houses to go vote.
yeah, i think the Bradley Effect was in full force.
and yes, i saw that whack ass chris rock movie…